The aim – to develop a risk model to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome.
Material and methods. The prospective survey STIMUL included data regarding characteristics, treatment, and outcome of 1103 patients with ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes diagnosed in Vinnitsya and Chmelnitsky regions.
Results. The risk predicting model of in-hospital mortality uses the weighted risk score being derived from 9 adverse risk factors, such as: older age, higher Killip class, lower systolic blood pressure and hemoglobin, elevated heart rate and serum creatinine, no reperfusion, elevated serum cardiac markers (≥ 8 ng/dl), history of heart failure. The risk score model validates in-hospital mortality risk as low (1 %; ≤ 6.5 points), middle (4–5 %; 7–11.5 points), high (25–30 %; 12–16.5 points) and very high score (≥ 85 %; ≥ 17 points).
Conclusions. This model is a simple robust tool for prediction of death in STEMI patients and has excellent discriminative ability (c-statistic = 0,94).