I.V. Drozdova, A.A. Babets, L.G. Stepanova, L.V. Omelnytska Morbidity, prevalence and disability related to essential hypertension: approach to the analysis and prediction

The aim – to develop approaches to assessing and predicting prevalence, morbidity and disability due to the essential hypertension (ЕH) to characterize public health.

Material and methods. Analysis of the incidence and prevalence of ЕH, as well as primary disability is provided given according to the available data from state research institutions. Short-term prediction analysis and prediction of morbidity and disability were conducted using adaptive methods.

Results. During 2014–2015 years among adult population of Ukraine incidence of ЕH decreased by 2.80 %, disability – by 33.3 %, while prevalence by 0,8 %. Among working age population incidence of ЕH was reduced by 1.83 %, primary disability – by 33.3 %, prevalence increased by 3.2 %. Adaptive methods of short-term prediction point to increased incidence, prevalence and disability related to the ЕH in different regions of Ukraine.

Conclusions. During health care reform in Ukraine there is a need to develop new monitoring systems evaluating morbidity and disability as indicators of public health.

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